TL;DR
- Analyst Ali Charts points to $73,000 as a potential Bitcoin support level after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.
- His review highlights sharp post-midterm declines across earlier cycles, while warning that elections alone did not cause those moves.
- A bullish counterpoint comes from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, who sees a path toward $100,000 as Bitcoin volatility falls and institutional demand remains resilient.
Bitcoin could face a volatile stretch after the U.S. midterm elections, with analyst Ali Charts flagging $73,000 as a downside level if historical market patterns repeat. The Nov. 3 vote arrives as traders balance election uncertainty, macro conditions and Bitcoin’s evolving institutional market structure.
In an analysis shared on X, Ali Charts reviewed Bitcoin’s behavior around previous U.S. midterm elections and argued that significant declines followed several cycles. He compared 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, while cautioning that elections were not necessarily the direct cause of those selloffs.
PREDICTION: US MIDTERM ELECTIONS = BITCOIN DUMP
1/5 🧵👇
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 29, 2026
The comparison also shows why the data needs context. Bitcoin was operating in a very different market in 2010, while the 2018 and 2022 downturns were linked to crypto and macro shocks. Binance Research has separately found that Bitcoin suffered substantial drawdowns during the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm years, but also recorded an average 54% gain during the 12 months following those elections. Â
Bitcoin Faces A Key Post-Midterm Test
Ali Charts places particular attention on the $73,000 area, describing it as a potential short-term holder cost-basis zone. If selling accelerates after the election, that level could become an important reference for traders assessing whether a correction remains contained or develops into a deeper decline.
Fourth-quarter seasonality adds another layer. Bitcoin posted a 391% gain in Q4 2010, but recorded losses in Q4 2014, 2018 and 2022. The mixed record provides context, but cannot determine price direction.
A pullback would not necessarily invalidate Bitcoin’s longer-term adoption trend. Institutional participation, exchange-traded products and broader financial integration have changed the market compared with earlier cycles.
Institutional Demand Keeps The Bull Case Alive
VanEck digital assets research head Matthew Sigel recently said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by next year. He pointed to fiscal pressures, liquidity conditions and continued institutional demand, while noting that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with four years ago. Â
That contrast leaves Bitcoin facing two competing forces. Historical election cycles could produce renewed volatility around November, while deeper institutional participation and changing liquidity conditions may provide support during corrections.
For now, $73,000 is an analyst-defined level to monitor, not a confirmed forecast. Bitcoin’s response to the midterms, liquidity conditions and investor demand will determine whether the market follows an old cycle pattern or continues to behave differently as digital assets mature.
