TL;DR
- Bitcoin holds above the key $77,100 support level despite hawkish comments from the Fed chair at Jackson Hole.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1,000 million in net inflows last week, with sustained institutional demand.
- U.S. PCE inflation stands at 3.7% and markets raise the probability of a September rate hike to 57%.
The Bitcoin market absorbed last week’s macroeconomic pressure without surrendering critical levels. According to the weekly report from Bitfinex, BTC briefly surpassed $81,000 before pulling back following the restrictive-toned remarks that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered at the annual Jackson Hole gathering. Despite the correction, Bitcoin held above the $77,100 support level, preserving a price structure of higher highs and higher lows.
One data point the report highlights as positive is the composition of August’s advance: the rally was driven primarily by spot purchases rather than excessive leverage. Open interest grew gradually, the basis remained relatively contained, and spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States received nearly $1,000 million in net inflows during the week. Large holders reduced their balances since late June, while custodial wallets linked to exchanges and ETF platforms recorded increases, suggesting a rotation toward institutional structures.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: The Macro as a Real Constraint
The macroeconomic context is, according to Bitfinex, the main restrictive factor. Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index stands at 3.7%, with the core component at 3.3%, while private domestic demand expanded at an annualized rate of 4.2% in the second quarter. The federal deficit has accumulated $1.8 trillion through the first ten months of fiscal year 2026, generating upward pressure on borrowing costs.
Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a firm constraint and noted that monetary policy may not yet be sufficiently restrictive. Markets reacted by raising the implied probability of a rate hike in September to 57% and pushing up yields on short-term Treasury bonds.
Investment products on Ethereum also showed solid relative demand, with $815.7 million in inflows during the week and a positive streak of ten consecutive sessions. The report concludes that the next major test will come with August’s labor market and inflation data, a moment at which the resilience of flows into crypto assets could confirm whether structural demand remains intact despite the tightening monetary environment.
