Galaxy Research said that Polymarket resolved Strategy’s recent Bitcoin-sale markets in opposite directions, with May ending “No” and June ending “Yes.” The BetMoar/UMA market page shows the May 31 contract tied to whether MicroStrategy sold any Bitcoin by that date, making the timing of disclosure the center of the dispute.
The resolution criteria relied on when they *sold* not when it was announced. Strategy's SEC-filed Form 8k explicitly stated that Strategy sold between May 26–31. A plain reading of the resolution criteria would suggest that the market should have resolved to YES, hence the…
— Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch) June 3, 2026
The outcome affects traders who wagered on whether Strategy’s first reported Bitcoin sale should count by trade date or public reporting date. BetMoar’s UMA view showed the May market moving toward a “No” outcome, while the June contract treated the later disclosure as the relevant trigger.
The next point to watch is whether similar prediction markets tighten language around sale date, reporting date and resolution sources. For now, the split verdict turns one corporate Bitcoin sale into a rules test for event-based markets.
Source: Galaxy Research official X account and BetMoar/UMA.
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