Operators on platforms such as Polymarket and Myriad remain skeptical about the alleged normalization of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important strategic crude oil chokepoint. Despite ceasefire announcements between Iran and the U.S., Smart Money data reflects only a 28% probability that maritime traffic will recover its usual flow before April 30, contradicting the official diplomatic narrative following operation “Epic Fury.”
Market skepticism is grounded in physical reality: the maritime association BIMCO maintains alerts for unremoved mine threats, and actual traffic barely reaches 5% of pre-crisis volumes. Furthermore, the use of cryptocurrencies has taken a leading role, with reports that Iran collects tolls of up to $2 million in Bitcoin and USDT per vessel, while the volume of oil futures on DeFi platforms like Hyperliquid has exceeded $991 million, proving that the crypto ecosystem is now the primary thermometer of geopolitical tension.
Bettors project that any normalization will be slow and bumpy, with a 63.2% probability of Brent returning to $120. The next milestone will be the closing of the May prediction markets, which will serve to confirm if the disruption of 20% of the global crude supply will extend throughout the entire second quarter of 2026.
Source:https://goo.su/Ruy34
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