TL;DR
- Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation has fallen to around -0.20, marking one of the weakest alignments in a decade after years of mostly positive linkage overall.
- Historical readings sat between 0.40 and 0.70 in 2021 and 2022 and rose as high as 0.85 during late-2022 volatility for both assets.
- BTC traded near $74,819 with volume above $42 billion, while post-correction data cited by Michaël van de Poppe points to historically outsized recoveries ahead.
Bitcoin is beginning to trade on its own terms again, unsettling one of the market’s most familiar assumptions. The story is not simply that Bitcoin is moving differently, but that its long-standing connection to the Nasdaq has weakened with unusual speed. Correlation between the two has dropped to around -0.20, a sharp break from the pattern that defined much of the post-2020 cycle. For traders used to reading Bitcoin as a leveraged expression of tech risk, that divergence raises a larger question: whether the asset is starting to follow a separate macro path.
For much of the last cycle, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq behaved as if they belonged to the same trade. Liquidity conditions, interest-rate expectations, and shifts in broader risk appetite often pulled both markets in the same direction. Correlation hovered between 0.40 and 0.70 through 2021 and 2022, then climbed as high as 0.75 to 0.85 in late 2022 as volatility intensified and macro pressure pushed investors into synchronized positioning. That history makes the current break more than a statistical curiosity. It challenges a framework many investors have used to explain crypto price behavior during rallies and drawdowns alike.
#Bitcoin is about to follow Nasdaq.
The reason for this is quite simple: the correlation has been significantly strong most of the time.
This period?
The weakest correlation in the past 10 years.
That provides a tremendous opportunity for $BTC, as it's also the lowest… pic.twitter.com/HUu8FMIVey
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 16, 2026
A Decoupling Could Redefine the Next Phase
What gives the divergence weight is that Bitcoin is not breaking away from equities while unraveling. It is holding near a level that still leaves room for upside, even as the old correlation structure comes apart. BTC was trading near $74,819, down slightly over 24 hours but still up nearly 4% on the week. Daily volume remained above $42 billion, suggesting participation is still strong despite mixed short-term momentum. That combination keeps the market in a delicate position: cautious enough to avoid euphoria, but active enough to keep a constructive narrative alive.
Michaël van de Poppe argues that periods like this have historically opened the door to strong recovery phases after corrections. If the split from the Nasdaq holds, Bitcoin may be entering a stretch where its own cycle dynamics matter more than equity signals. Past post-correction periods have averaged gains of about 45% over three months and as much as 370% over twelve months, although macro liquidity and broader positioning still matter. For now, the market is watching whether this break becomes a genuine regime change or fades into temporary dislocation.
