Research firm Messari, in its recent analysis, reveals that buying newly listed tokens on Binance’s spot market during 2025 would have resulted in massive losses. The study simulated a portfolio of $9,200 ($100 invested in each of the 92 listed tokens) at the first-day closing price; by March 2026, this investment would have plummeted to just $2,600, representing a 71% decline.
This phenomenon challenges the traditional narrative that a listing on a top-tier exchange guarantees sustained gains. According to Messari, listing events now function more as liquidity events where early investors and venture capital firms dump their positions. Furthermore, the current project structure—characterized by low initial supply and large future unlocks—creates persistent selling pressure that dilutes the assets’ long-term value.
In the short term, traders will be closely monitoring unlock schedules and supply dynamics before entering new listings. The data suggests that the “Binance effect” has mutated: what was once a bullish catalyst now, in the current cycle, requires a much more rigorous selection strategy to avoid getting caught in downward price discovery.
Source:https://x.com/Degenerate_DeFi/status/2031392566361706752?s=20
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