QCP Group said in its March 9 Market Colour note that the U.S. dollar has become the market’s preferred defensive asset as oil surged above $115 and inflation fears deepened, even as Bitcoin showed unusual resilience under broader stress.
The note described a risk-off backdrop shaped by tensions in Iran and fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, with global equities turning defensive. Yet Treasuries and gold did not attract their usual haven demand as higher crude prices pushed yields up, leaving the dollar in the lead. QCP also said BTC held up better than many risk assets, with options flows showing less fear of another sharp flush lower and demand centered more on volatility than a one-way drop.
For now, downside hedges remain in place through short-dated strikes between $61,000 and $64,000, but positioning also points to pockets of renewed optimism. QCP highlighted March open interest concentrated at the $75,000 and $125,000 call strikes, while arguing that Bitcoin’s role as a “digital escape hatch” is gaining relevance amid currency volatility and political uncertainty. The next milestones to watch are U.S. CPI on March 11, unemployment claims on March 12, and Core PCE plus JOLTS on March 13.
Source: QCP Group, QCP Market Colour.
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