The Coinbase Premium returned to positive territory for the first time in six weeks, a signal analysts interpret as a possible return of institutional demand in the U.S. spot market.
The indicator measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase’s USD market and offshore platforms: when it rises, it reflects greater buying interest from the United States. Historically, sustained positive levels have coincided with ETF inflows, aggressive spot accumulation, and continuation of bullish momentum.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s weekly charts show extreme oversold conditions. Analysts warn that this does not automatically constitute a buy signal or confirm a bottom. It represents, instead, a warning about positioning: when markets lean heavily in one direction, bounces can be violent. Previous episodes such as the COVID crash or the FTX collapse generated similar conditions before abrupt recoveries.
The confluence of both signals draws all market attention. A single turn in the Coinbase premium does not guarantee a bullish breakout, but if the level holds and expands while the weekly oversold remains compressed, the scenario becomes more constructive. If spot demand fades, volatility in derivatives markets could once again dominate price dynamics.
Source: https://x.com/MerlijnTrader/status/2026990640303952232
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