TL;DR
- Jobs Data Focus: Bitcoin trades near $66K to $67K as markets await the delayed U.S. jobs report, with forecasts calling for about 70,000 payroll additions and unemployment near 4.4%.
- Fed Rate Signals: Stronger‑than‑expected payrolls could reduce the odds of a June Fed rate cut, while analysts remain split and traders also eye Friday’s CPI release for inflation cues.
- Market Weakness: Altcoins fall 3% to 5%, Robinhood reports weaker crypto revenue, and analysts highlight reduced liquidity and retail disengagement.
Bitcoin slipped back into the $66K to $67K trading range as traders braced themselves for the long-awaited U.S. jobs report, which could potentially influence the Federal Reserve’s policy for its upcoming meeting. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has been trapped in a downward trend, with slight recoveries here and there. The crypto market is experiencing a fragile sentiment, with investors struggling to cope with delayed economic data and a sharp decline in crypto trading activity.
Jobs Report Delay Heightens Market Sensitivity
The U.S. employment report, postponed due to a short government shutdown, is set for release today and is expected to show modest job gains. Economists project about 70,000 new nonfarm payrolls in January, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.4%. Forecasts vary widely, ranging from a loss of 10,000 jobs to gains of up to 135,000, reflecting uncertainty around seasonal layoffs and sluggish labor conditions. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for the month. Traders are also watching Friday’s CPI release, which could further shape inflation expectations and influence the Fed’s next steps.
Market participants expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged until June after three cuts in late 2025. However, stronger‑than‑expected payrolls could reduce the likelihood of a June cut. The CME FedWatch tool shows nearly 50% odds of a 25 bps reduction. Analysts remain divided, with major institutions split on whether payrolls will exceed or fall short of estimates. Fed officials have also signaled differing views, while White House adviser Kevin Hassett warned of softer job gains ahead.
Bitcoin and Crypto Market Reacts to Macro Pressures
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,500, dropping 3%, according to on-chain data. Despite expectations that easier Fed policy typically supports risk assets, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain momentum. Analysts cite reduced liquidity, weak institutional participation, and fading speculative interest as the reasons behind the volatility.
Kaiko noted that a recent drawdown triggered $9 billion in liquidations and pushed stablecoin dominance above 10%, though falling volumes suggest retail disengagement rather than panic. Altcoins extended losses, with Ethereum down nearly 4% to trade below $2,000 and XRP also falling 4% to trade at $1.36. Solana, Polygon, and Cardano also declined. Meanwhile, Robinhood reported weaker‑than‑expected quarterly earnings, with crypto revenue dropping sharply and its stock sliding more than 8% in after‑hours trading.
