Bitcoin trades near $75,600 after falling 3.7% in the last 24 hours and more than 15% over the past month. BTC is down nearly 38% from its October all-time high, when it surpassed $127,000.
Galaxy notes that structural weakness in the realized price and the 200-week moving average leaves Bitcoin exposed to further declines. One analyst points out that BTC could first retrace to the bottom of the supply gap at $70,000 and then approach the realized price of $56,000 or the 200-week moving average at $58,000.
Historically, 40% drops from all-time highs have extended to 50% in all but one instance. Data from the last three bull cycles show that breaking the 50-day moving average often precedes declines toward the 200-week moving average, currently at $58,000.
Long-term holders’ profit-taking has eased after the record levels seen in 2024 and 2025, leaving recent levels as reference points for long-term entries. On the Myriad prediction market, users assign a 66% probability that Bitcoin will drop to $69,000 before reaching $100,000.
Source: https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2018382912811364641
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