Arthur Hayes attributed Bitcoin’s decline to a sharp contraction in U.S. dollar liquidity, amid macro tightening and pressure on risk assets. The former BitMEX CEO said the pullback is not driven by crypto-specific factors, but by a system-wide liquidity drain.
According to Hayes, dollar liquidity has fallen by roughly $300,000 million in recent weeks. About $200,000 million of that amount comes from an increase in the Treasury General Account, where the U.S. Treasury is accumulating cash. This move coincides with a rebuilding of cash balances to cover government spending in case of a potential shutdown.
Roughly $300bn fall in $ liq over past few weeks driven mostly by $200bn rise in TGA, gov could be raising cash balances to fund spending in case of shutdown. $BTC falling not a surprise given the fall in $ liquidity. pic.twitter.com/ctPjWd8188
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 30, 2026
The adjustment is reflected in the USDLIQ index, which tracks overall dollar liquidity conditions. The indicator fell nearly 7% over six months, from levels near 11.8 million in August to around 10.88 million by late January. Over the same period, Bitcoin lost momentum and slipped below $89,000 after a brief rebound.
At the same time, markets are showing signs of reduced speculation. Open interest in crypto futures fell 42% from all-time highs, according to CoinGlass. In parallel, part of the capital rotated into traditional assets such as gold and silver, a shift reinforced by tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve rate decisions.
Source: https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/2017138034018570469
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