TL;DR:
- Deribit’s combined monthly, quarterly, and annual expiry totaled $28B in notional value, the biggest on record.
- 267,000 BTC options expired with a 0.35 put-to-call ratio, $23.6B notional, and $95,000 maximum pain; 1.28M ETH options expired for $3.71B with $3,100 maximum pain.
- After settlement, March contracts hold 30% of open interest; strikes still cluster at $75,000 puts and calls above $90,000 as BTC trades $88,701.51 amid low-volume volatility.
BTC and ETH markets just absorbed a record year-end options expiry on Deribit, a combined monthly, quarterly, and annual settlement worth $28B in notional value. Big expiries often force fast repositioning and can amplify volatility, because desks roll hedges and reset exposure at the same time. Deribit is watched as a real-time read on trader bias, especially when spot liquidity thins into holidays. This expiry landed with the crypto fear and greed index still low, a reminder that risk appetite remains cautious. The priority for markets was execution stability, not fireworks into the final sessions.
https://twitter.com/DeribitOfficial/status/2004452425676292211
Record expiry, maximum pain, and what traders are signaling
267,000 BTC options expired with a put-to-call ratio of 0.35, representing $23.6B in notional value. The maximum pain level sat at $95,000, above current prices, underscoring how far positioning can be from spot reality. Ethereum’s expiry was also heavy, with 1.28M options rolling off at $3.71B nominal and maximum pain at $3,100. Ahead of settlement, volumes rose as traders adjusted strikes and tenors. The event combined monthly and quarterly expiries, and it cleared more than half of Deribit’s open contracts today. In a low-liquidity tape, these pricing landmarks became coordination points for hedging.
The options market gained influence in 2025 as a primary tool to hedge downside in BTC trading, reflecting the growing footprint of institutions and whales. This $28B annual expiry, described as the largest in history, reshuffled more than half of Deribit’s open positions and concentrated attention on what comes next. After settlement, March contracts became the key benchmark, accumulating 30% of open interest. Sentiment stayed defensive, with the fear and greed index at 27, up from 21 last week. Year-end trading was slow and skittish. The quarter’s volatility forced protection-first positioning across BTC and ETH.
Post-expiry strikes outline where traders see both pain and upside. In prior events, many puts clustered at $85,000 to $80,000, but the most numerous strike is now $75,000, with heavy interest still parked at $80,000 and $85,000. Call options start building above $90,000, signaling a conditional return to bullish scenarios. BTC traded at $88,701.51 and has stayed in a narrow range for the past month, yet attempts above $90,000 drew selling and long liquidations. After repositioning, options signal ongoing fear of a BTC dip despite rangebound spot. Low-volume anomalies could still widen the range quickly.
