TL;DR:
- CF Benchmarks, backed by Kraken, models Bitcoin reaching $1.4 million by 2035 by capturing one-third of the global store-of-value market.
- The analysts argue 2% to 5% portfolio weights can lift risk-adjusted returns and expand the efficient frontier as liquidity and derivatives mature.
- They project volatility grinding toward 28% over a decade, while noting other seven-figure calls and that Bitcoin sits about 30% below its $126,000 October high.
Crypto traders are getting a new long-horizon talking point after CF Benchmarks, a research firm backed by Kraken, projected Bitcoin could reach $1.4 million by 2035. The forecast is pitched as a store-of-value share grab, with analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk arguing Bitcoin can capture one-third of the global store-of-value market. From a reference price around $88,000, they model roughly 1,500% upside. The report says Bitcoin offers an “asymmetrical return” profile that differentiates it from traditional assets and can justify measured portfolio inclusion. They expect deeper liquidity to support broader institutional sizing.
How the $1.4M model maps the path forward
Selby and Pilipczuk frame the thesis in capital-markets language rather than chart lore. Portfolio math is the report’s center of gravity, because they say even 2% to 5% Bitcoin weights can improve long-term risk-adjusted returns and expand the efficient frontier. In that setup, the upside is not only price appreciation but diversification benefits as institutions treat Bitcoin as a measurable allocation. The report links that shift to deeper spot liquidity, more mature derivatives markets, and a more routinized presence of professional capital. That combination, they argue, reduces implementation friction for large mandates globally.
A second pillar is the expectation that volatility compresses as infrastructure thickens. Lower volatility is treated as an outcome of market maturity, with the analysts projecting it drifts toward 28% over the next decade as liquidity deepens, institutional capital becomes more entrenched, and derivatives continue to evolve. The implication is that hedging tools and tighter spreads can dampen reflexive, thin-liquidity swings that have historically defined Bitcoin’s reputation. If realized, a calmer risk profile supports larger position sizes and helps the valuation case scale beyond niche allocations. It strengthens the case for long-duration holding.
CF Benchmarks notes it is not alone in forecasting seven figures, even if timelines vary. A growing chorus is normalizing the million-dollar milestone, citing Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s view that Bitcoin can reach $1 million by 2030, Eric Trump’s similar projection made at an August Federal Reserve gathering, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes pointing to 2028. Strategy CEO Phong Le is also cited expecting “nation state adoption” to spur buying in 2026. The report still flags today’s tape: Bitcoin is about 30% below its $126,000 all-time high set in October as sentiment resets.
