TL;DR
- Monthly trading volume fell to $1.59 trillion, the lowest level since February, with $3.48B in BTC ETF outflows.
- The drop was catalyzed by speculation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the unwinding of the yen carry trade.
- Bitcoin plummeted 32% from its all-time high, liquidating over $600 million in leveraged positions.
November closed with the steepest monthly decline since February in the cryptocurrency market. Exchange volumes fell to $1.59 trillion, the lowest level in nine months, while Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged $3.48 billion in net outflows.
Furthermore, the sector-wide retreat accelerated last week, with Bitcoin falling below $86,000—32% down from its October all-time high—wiping out over $600 million in leveraged positions.
The low crypto trading volume in November reflected a generalized risk aversion. Binance, although maintaining its lead, recorded only $599.34 billion, a sharp decline from October’s $810.44 billion.
Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) mirrored this trend, with volumes dropping to $397.78 billion, their lowest monthly total since June.
The BOJ’s Domino Effect and Massive ETF Outflows
The main catalyst for the recent decline was the growing speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in December. This hypothesis triggered a cascading reversal of the carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow low-cost yen to purchase risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
A stronger yen and the expectation of higher rates force the sale of assets. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, noted that the Bitcoin dump was caused by the announcement of a potential BOJ rate hike.
The fear was exacerbated by the weakness in institutional investment products. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest monthly outflow since February, with $3.48 billion in withdrawals. The exodus was led by BlackRock (IBIT). Additionally, spot Ethereum ETFs also registered a record monthly outflow of $1.42 billion. Only alternative products like XRP ETFs ($666 million) bucked the trend.
Finally, the crypto trading volume during November also generated corporate concern, as Strategy Inc. indicated it might sell its Bitcoin stockpile if its mNAV ratio falls below 1x, a measure of last resort to fund dividends. This combination of macroeconomic pressure and massive capital outflows defined a somber month for the ecosystem.
