TL;DR
- A total of 153,778 BTC in options contracts, valued at $13.3 billion, expire this Friday.
- The “Max Pain” price is set at $102,000, indicating a correction of over 17% from the optimal level for sellers.
- The concentration of bearish interest is centered at the $80,000 level, a crucial support point.
This coming Friday marks the monthly Bitcoin options expiry, with a combined notional exposure of approximately $13.3 billion. A total of 153,778 BTC in contracts are set to expire, and the timing comes right after a significant correction that saw the pioneering crypto fall 35% from its highs to $81,000, before partially recovering to $87,000.
This new correction once again puts the derivatives market in the spotlight, especially since traders have adopted a defensive stance. Deribit data indicates that the total exposure is broken down into 92,692 BTC of open interest in Call options (bullish bets) and 61,086 BTC in Put options (hedging or bearish bets).
This results in a Put/Call ratio of 0.66, which indicates that, while Calls still outnumber Puts, the demand for downside protection has grown considerably. However, the most telling data point is the “Max Pain” price, which is located at $102,000, 17% above the current spot price.
This figure illustrates the great distance BTC’s price has moved from the point where option sellers would incur the least total loss, a critical factor in the Bitcoin options expiry.
Impact of Mass Selling and Volatility
The price in the red caused most contracts to be Out-of-the-Money. Data shows that $10 billion, or close to 74% of the total exposure, remains out-of-the-money, which accentuates the intensity with which traders positioned for moves above the current range. On the other hand, the largest concentration of bearish open interest is clustered at the $80,000 strike level, making this the largest Put cluster on the board. Calls accumulate at much higher prices, especially above $120,000, but these are far from being exercised.
Overall market sentiment remains fragile and dominated by fear. With massive out-of-the-money positions, Bitcoin is likely to maintain high volatility until Friday, as market makers adjust their hedging flows around key strike levels.
The final impact of the Bitcoin options expiry will depend on the asset’s ability to defend the $80,000 support and how derivatives pressure influences the spot price, a factor investors should closely monitor.
