TL;DR
- The pseudonymous analyst Mikybull, who correctly called the $15,000 bottom in 2022, asserts that Bitcoin’s macro bottom is “closer than most expected.”
- Market capitulation is reflected in record liquidations of $2.2 billion and a Fear & Greed Index at 11 (“extreme fear”).
- Mikybull’s Bitcoin bottom forecast aligns with Arthur Hayes’ view, despite macro economic headwinds.
Digital asset investors are riding the wave of sell-off pessimism, while a familiar voice rings out with a contrary view: Bitcoin’s macroeconomic bottom might be just around the corner.
The economist under the pseudonym Mikybull, famous for correctly identifying the November 2022 bottom near $15,000 before the rally to over $30,000, has once again stirred the crypto community.
Mikybull recently stated that the current BTC price is “very close to a historic macro bottom,” indicating that market sentiment has reached an “all-time low.”
He categorically asserted that a drop to the $60,000–$50,000 range is “not technically possible” in the current context, reinforcing the thesis that the Bitcoin bottom will be at levels higher than popular belief. Mikybull had also previously marked the mid-2024 dip toward $50,000 as a buying opportunity, demonstrating a consistently contrarian perspective.
Market Capitulation Drives Extreme Fear
Mikybull’s opinion arrives in a context of capitulation, evidenced by on-chain data. The analytics firm Glassnode reported that realized losses have reached levels not seen since the FTX collapse. The selling pressure comes mainly from short-term holders, who are responsible for the “bulk of the capitulation” by rushing to exit the market at a loss.
Panic is also sweeping through the derivatives markets. Data from CoinGlass shows that approximately $2.2 billion in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated in just 24 hours, with over $1 billion tied to BTC alone. As a result, more than 400,000 traders were wiped out.
This pessimism is perfectly reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which sits at 11, firmly anchored in the “extreme fear” zone.
Adding to this chorus of contrary analysts, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also commented that the Bitcoin bottom is near, although he urged patience before taking a position.
The adverse macroeconomic environment (Trump’s tariffs on China, lower expectations for Fed rate cuts, and mass sales of tech stocks) has exacerbated the outflow from risk assets, with Bitcoin being one of the first assets investors liquidate in risk-off environments.
Despite these headwinds, and while other analysts like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintain targets of $200,000 for January, Mikybull’s thesis suggests that, with BTC trading near $85,000 at the time of writing, the market may be laying the groundwork for a strong rally in the fourth quarter.
