TL;DR
- Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over, replaced by institutional risk appetite.
- Large holders control one-third of supply, influencing price cycles.
- Halving events no longer drive marginal demand from new investors.
Bitcoin trades around $85,000, and the recent drop opens a broader debate that, according to Jeff Park, Partner and CIO at ProCap BTC, moves far beyond short-term dip buying. In his Nov. 20 conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park stated that the halving-based pattern lost its foundation and no longer guides market behavior.
Park said that “the four-year cycle is almost definitively over” because the halving no longer drives the marginal demand coming from new institutional channels. He explained that the market now follows a rhythm aligned with institutional risk appetite, not with a scheduled supply event.
“Logically and fundamentally the four-year cycle should no longer exist and a new cycle should emerge that is more in sync with institutional risk capital appetite”
He also pointed out that beliefs still influence price action. Park emphasized that a large group of early adopters continues to trade under the old script. He described them as investors who hold firm convictions and act accordingly.
In his view, their supply control shapes the market. He noted that wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC command a major share of the supply and represent roughly one-third of circulating Bitcoin.
Jeff Park argues that Bitcoin enters a new market cycle as it trades near $85,000
Park argued that such concentration can create reflexive behavior: if a third of the holders acts under a specific cycle, price movement can sync with their behavior.
Park added that recent weakness may offer a constructive reset. He highlighted that Bitcoin trades below its year-to-date level in 2025, which raises the possibility of a red yearly close. With a sharp tone, he commented that a negative annual candle in 2025 “breaks the four-year cycle” and reshapes the pattern into a three-year rhythm.
His argument pushes the market to reconsider its narrative. The current retracement does more than lower spot prices; it forces traders to reassess the framework that guided much of Bitcoin’s previous cycle.
