TL;DR:
- Bitcoin fell below its 365-day average at $102,000, wiping over $700B from global crypto market capitalization.
- On-chain and futures data signal stress, with growing unrealized losses and leveraged positions increasing liquidation risk.
- Whale accumulation and strong macro liquidity provide structural support, suggesting the decline may reflect a mid-cycle correction rather than a full bear market.
Crypto markets faced a fresh wave of panic as Bitcoin slipped below critical support levels, wiping out over $700 billion from global market capitalization. Analysts are divided on whether this represents the start of a bear market or a mid-cycle correction within a larger bullish trend, while investors react nervously to renewed selling pressure and heightened volatility.
Does a sweeping reversal ((Nov 11) followed by 8 days of lower highs and the completion of a massive broadening top qualify as a bear market?
Targets implied are 81k and 58k
Those who now claim they will be big buyers at $58K will be pukers by the time BTC reaches $60k pic.twitter.com/Z01KKDSGmV— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 19, 2025
Bitcoin Declines Amplify Market Stress Amid Uncertainty
Bitcoin fell beneath its 365-day moving average of $102,000, a level that has historically indicated cycle shifts in prior bear markets, including 2018 and 2021. At press time, BTC trades near $91,754, signaling a modest 0.82% gain in 24 hours, but the broader market remains tense. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10, reflecting panic levels last seen in 2022, with over $700 billion erased in the past month alone.
On-chain data reinforces concerns. BTC now trades below the realized price of coins held six to twelve months, indicating growing unrealized losses and the potential for forced liquidations if selling intensifies. Futures markets mirror this stress: perpetual futures open interest surged by $3.3 billion as dip-buying orders filled during BTC’s decline under $98,000, adding leveraged positions to a falling market.
Technical indicators are mixed. Veteran trader Peter Brandt cites a broadening top pattern and eight sessions of lower highs, projecting potential downside targets of $81,000 and $58,000. Yet some analysts argue this may reflect a mid-cycle breakdown, rather than a full bear market, highlighting the importance of key support levels in determining the next market phase.
Despite weak sentiment, whale activity suggests a contrasting trend. Addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have increased, indicating institutional accumulation and long-term investors seeing value at current levels. Macro conditions also provide tailwinds, with global liquidity easing, US dollar credit up 6% YOY, and euro credit rising 13%, offering structural support for risk assets even amid short-term volatility.
Overall, the interplay between technical stress, institutional buying, and macro liquidity paints a complex picture: BTC’s breakdown has triggered panic, yet underlying fundamentals and liquidity conditions may cushion further declines and signal resilience in the broader crypto ecosystem.
