TL;DR
- Bitcoin trades sideways while the market awaits a torrent of economic data delayed by the shutdown.
- Bitcoin ETFs record $247 million in inflows this week, reversing previous selling pressure.
- Analysts foresee consolidation throughout November before a potential year-end rally.
This week, caution in the crypto market is evident. The reopening of the United States federal government, following the longest shutdown in history, is positive news; however, the Bitcoin price stays flat.
The pioneer digital asset oscillates around the $103,000 mark. Given this landscape, investors remain cautious in a holding pattern, attentive to the release of economic data that remained paused while the government was paralyzed.
Although price action seems stagnant, the story of institutional flows is slightly different. DefiLlama data reveals that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have attracted $247 million in investments over the last four days.
This capital flow is a welcome sign contrasting with the $1.2 billion selling pressure recorded last week. However, analysts like Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet warn that the fact that the Bitcoin price stays flat reflects a broader shift toward risk aversion and profit-taking following recent all-time highs.
Economic Data and Interest Rate Expectations
The reactivation of federal agencies serves as a powerful short-term catalyst, yet uncertainty persists. Market attention is now focused on the November 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
If inflation data confirms a cooling trend amidst diminishing geopolitical risks, a liquidity-driven rebound could be triggered. Nonetheless, the accumulated delay in data adds a layer of complexity to the analysis.
Shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve further complicate the macroeconomic landscape. The odds of a December rate cut have fallen to 55% according to the CME FedWatch tool, making it difficult to break current resistance to the upside while the Bitcoin price stays flat.
Robin Singh, CEO of accounting platform Koinly, suggests that frustrated traders might need patience. It is very possible that the asset consolidates throughout November, frustrating expectations of an immediate rally.
At press time, Bitcoin reports a 1.8% drop in the last 24 hours, trading at $103,000, while President Trump attempts to revive stimulus hopes by floating the idea of $2,000 rebate checks funded by tariff revenue.
