TL;DR:
- Gemini plans to offer prediction market contracts to trade real-world event outcomes.
- The company filed for regulatory approval to become a designated contract market amid competition.
- Execution hinges on regulatory clearance and Gemini’s ability to stand out in a crowded market.
Gemini, the crypto exchange backed by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is making a bold pivot. The platform is preparing to launch prediction market contracts that let users trade on real-world outcomes, marking a clear step into a rapidly expanding arena. The firm’s application with the regulatory body came in May, and the move positions Gemini to compete directly with established players.
Eyeing a surge in event-based trading
Gemini sees major potential in prediction markets and is acting swiftly. The exchange filed to create a designated contract market for event contracts covering economics, politics, sport and finance. Meanwhile, rivals such as Kalshi and Polymarket have recorded weekly volumes exceeding $1 billion. Analysts believe Gemini’s timing could be opportune as demand climbs and competition intensifies.
Regulatory headwinds remain the biggest hurdle for Gemini’s rollout. The approval process from the U.S. derivatives regulator can stretch for months or even years. Government shutdowns and overlapping jurisdictional oversight add layers of uncertainty. Although Gemini aims to launch quickly, some industry watchers expect delays, a risk in an already crowded field.
The move reflects a broader trend of crypto firms expanding into derivatives and event-driven markets. Traditional finance firms and exchanges are also entering prediction markets, seeking exposure to new forms of speculation. For Gemini, success depends on differentiating its offering through compliance and innovation. In doing so, the exchange hopes to redefine how retail and institutional users engage with outcome-based contracts.
