TL;DR
- Hedera (HBAR) rose more than 16% over the past week, recovering part of the losses after a month dominated by selling and sideways consolidation.
- Addresses holding over 100 million HBAR reduced their stake from 41.75% to 40.65%, moving more than 110 million tokens, equivalent to around $20.9 million.
- The Smart Money Index remains bullish near 1.08, while the Money Flow Index jumped from 35 to 69, reflecting optimism among retail investors.
Hedera (HBAR) climbed over 16% in the past week, reclaiming part of the ground lost after a month dominated by sales.
However, while retail traders and some technical indicators maintain a positive outlook, HBAR whales are reducing positions, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally. The network is at a turning point between signs of recovery and a potential correction.
Whales Withdraw Liquidity
On-chain data shows that addresses holding more than 100 million HBAR reduced their share from 41.75% to 40.65% since October 21, implying the exit of over 110 million tokens, worth around $20.9 million. This suggests whales are withdrawing liquidity in a context where the price still trades within a sideways range between $0.219 and $0.154. The selling pressure from large holders contrasts with retail inflows, which continue to enter the market.
The Smart Money Index, which tracks experienced traders’ behavior, remains near 1.08 and retains a slightly bullish bias. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index, which combines price and volume to detect capital inflows, jumped from 35 to 69.4 in two weeks, indicating consistent buying from retail investors. This divergence between smart money optimism and whale exits creates a highly uncertain scenario: the technical structure could shift quickly if sentiment reverses.
HBAR Technical Analysis: What’s Next?
From a technical perspective, HBAR shows hidden bearish divergence. Between October 6 and 29, the price formed lower highs while the RSI recorded higher highs, a pattern typically signaling continuation of a downtrend. For now, the token holds support at $0.189, but a break of this level could trigger a drop toward $0.168 and then $0.154, where the next support zone is concentrated. Its current price is $0.1989, up 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
HBAR’s evolution will depend on whether it can sustain the current range or if whale selling intensifies. Although the recent rebound relieved some of the accumulated pressure, the market remains divided between those expecting a sustained recovery and those seeing large-holder exits as a warning of a potential new bearish phase
