TL;DR
- Historic mNAV drop: Metaplanet’s market to Bitcoin NAV ratio fell to 0.99, the first time below 1, signaling its enterprise value is worth less than its BTC holdings.
- Stock collapse: Shares plunged 75% since June, falling from 1,895 yen ($13) to 482 yen ($3.2), coinciding with a pause in Bitcoin purchases.
- Wider trend: Analysts see the decline as a bubble burst, with parallels to other Bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy, though some investors may see buying opportunities.
Metaplanet, the Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, has entered uncharted territory as its enterprise value slipped below the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. The company’s market-to-Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV) ratio fell to 0.99 this week, marking the first time it has traded at a discount to its treasury. The decline coincides with a pause in Bitcoin purchases, raising questions about investor sentiment and the sustainability of crypto treasury strategies.
mNAV Drops Below 1 for the First Time
The mNAV ratio, which compares enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings, dropped below 1 on Tuesday, signaling that Metaplanet’s market capitalization and debt are valued less than its BTC reserves. The company’s stock has fallen 75% since mid-June, sliding from 1,895 yen ($13) per share to 482 yen ($3.2). This sharp decline followed a two-week halt in Bitcoin acquisitions, with the last purchase of 5,268 BTC announced on Sept. 30.
Understanding the mNAV Metric
Unlike traditional NAV, mNAV is designed to measure how markets value a company relative to its Bitcoin treasury. Enterprise value includes market capitalization, debt, and preferred shares, minus cash. When mNAV falls below 1, it suggests the company trades at a discount to its BTC holdings, reflecting concerns about debt, operations, or broader risks. Analysts caution that while not a substitute for audited financials, mNAV offers a high-level snapshot of how much valuation is tied to Bitcoin.
Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Holdings and History
Metaplanet currently holds 30,823 BTC worth $3.5 billion. Its most recent acquisition came just over a year after its first Bitcoin purchase on July 22, 2024, which initially sent shares soaring. At that time, mNAV peaked at 22.59, a record that has not been approached since. The latest decline underscores how quickly market enthusiasm has cooled, even for one of the largest public Bitcoin holders.
Market Reactions and Broader Implications
Equity analyst Mark Chadwick described the downturn as the bursting of a bubble, though he noted that long-term Bitcoin bulls may view the discount as a buying opportunity. Metaplanet’s silence on the matter leaves investors speculating about its next move. The company’s struggles mirror broader declines among Bitcoin treasury firms, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has seen its stock fall 30% since July.
