TL;DR
- Cycle structure: Analyst frames Dogecoin’s chart as completing a multi-year pattern, with Wave Five now in play and a potential rally toward $4 if historical cycles repeat.
- Fibonacci math: Technical analysis highlights retracements and extensions, pointing to $4.13 as the main target, while also outlining alternative outcomes near $0.76 or mid-range Fibonacci levels.
- Liquidity factor: Market cap concerns are downplayed, with liquidity, leverage, and derivatives emphasized as the real forces that could drive DOGE’s price higher.
Dogecoin could be on the verge of its most dramatic rally yet, according to crypto analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow). In a recent video analysis, he argued that DOGE is entering the final leg of a multi-year cycle that could propel the meme coin toward $4. His thesis relies on Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci extensions, and liquidity dynamics, with the analyst insisting that “it’s all math” rather than hype driving the projection.
I'm going to lay down the case as to why I think $DOGE can hit $4 this cycle, based on fib levels and Elliott Wave theory, and also think outside the box a bit here when it comes to market capitalization which most people struggle to do. pic.twitter.com/vsL2WwLKpj
— Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈 (@cantonmeow) October 1, 2025
A Multi-Cycle Framework
Cantonese Cat dismisses speculation about his identity, clarifying he is not Elon Musk, before outlining his technical roadmap. He identifies three long-term rounding-bottom cycles on Dogecoin’s logarithmic chart, with the third now unfolding. Within this structure, he highlights recurring cup-and-handle formations, noting that each pullback has historically offered accumulation opportunities. He frames the 2021 mania as Wave Three, the subsequent correction as Wave Four, and the current uptrend as the early stages of Wave Five.
Fibonacci Targets and Wave Five
The analyst applies Fibonacci retracements and extensions to validate his wave count. Wave Two retraced to the 0.5 level, while Wave Three peaked at a 1.618 extension of Wave One. The correction that followed aligned with a 0.618 retracement, consistent with a Wave Four pullback. Based on this structure, he projects Wave Five to terminate between the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions, with $4.13 as the most probable outcome. Alternative scenarios include a truncated fifth near $0.76 or a more modest rise to the 1.272 or 1.414 levels.
Liquidity Over Market Cap
Addressing concerns about Dogecoin’s implied half-trillion-dollar market cap at $4, Cantonese Cat stresses that market capitalization is often misunderstood. He argues that liquidity, leverage, and derivatives drive marginal pricing, not direct capital inflows. “You don’t need half a trillion dollars to push Doge to half a trillion dollar market cap,” he explains, pointing to the role of broader liquidity conditions and credit cycles in fueling price expansions.
Key Levels and Caveats
The analyst identifies $0.33 as a critical breakout threshold that could unlock higher targets. Still, he acknowledges risks, including failure to reclaim key Fibonacci bands, tightening macro liquidity, or supply dilution from Dogecoin’s ongoing issuance. Despite these caveats, he maintains that the major impulse of Wave Five has yet to unfold. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.25, leaving significant room for upside if his framework proves correct.
