TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes projects that Bitcoin could reach $3.4 million by 2028, driven by aggressive monetary expansion.
- U.S. Treasury debt issuance could exceed $15 trillion through 2028, with annual deficits of $2 trillion.
- Arthur links credit creation directly to Bitcoin’s price, estimating that each trillion dollars printed brings BTC closer to its multimillion-dollar target.
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $3.4 million by 2028, a prediction based on scenarios of aggressive monetary expansion and yield curve control under a potential Donald Trump administration.
According to Hayes, U.S. fiscal pressures are set to intensify, with annual deficits estimated at $2 trillion through 2028, and the need to refinance existing debt could drive Treasury issuance above $15 trillion during that period.
Hayes’ forecast assumes that the Federal Reserve will become the primary buyer of these bonds, absorbing more than 50% of the new debt, while foreign investors reduce their participation. During the pandemic, U.S. authorities absorbed about 40% of government borrowing to stabilize markets—a pattern that, according to Hayes, could repeat amid increased debt issuance.
Hayes Links Credit Creation to Bitcoin’s Price
The impact of this fiscal and monetary policy on liquidity is central to his analysis. Hayes directly connects credit creation to Bitcoin’s price, estimating that each trillion dollars printed pushes the cryptocurrency closer to its multimillion-dollar target. He calculates a slope of 0.19 between credit expansion and BTC appreciation, suggesting that the direction of liquidity flow matters more than the exact price outcome.
Betting on the Fastest Horse
Although he acknowledges that Bitcoin may not reach exactly $3.4 million, Hayes emphasizes that his goal is to identify the correct direction and bet on the “fastest horse” in a context of massive money printing. As of now, Bitcoin trades near $113,000, about 9% below its all-time high of $124,167 reached in August.
This forecast combines macroeconomic analysis with extreme monetary policy assumptions. U.S. liquidity and fiscal policy could become decisive factors for the value of the leading cryptocurrency over the next three years
