TL;DR
- Bitcoin is facing a critical resistance level at $116,000, according to Bitfinex analysts, who believe the price will need stronger momentum to break higher.
- The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision has left analysts divided on how Bitcoin may react, with some expecting a rally and others warning of a pullback.
- Despite short-term uncertainty, historical performance in Q4 and strong long-term holder conviction could provide a bullish backdrop.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $116,300, struggling to push past a resistance zone that has proven difficult to overcome since its all-time high of $124,100 on August 14. Bitfinex analysts explained in their latest market note that the cryptocurrency remains at the top of its trading range but lacks decisive momentum to reclaim higher ground in the coming sessions.
The report noted that buyers who entered between $108,000 and $116,000 during the summer rally are now underwater, adding pressure to any further upside attempts. Despite the short-term challenges, institutional demand, global liquidity conditions, and increasing on-chain activity continue to offer robust support for the leading digital asset.
Analysts Split On Fed Rate Cut Impact
Much of the market’s attention is focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision expected this week. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a strong probability of a 25 basis point cut, which historically has been favorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Optimists like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argue that a rate cut could trigger substantial moves for both Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming months.
On the other hand, more cautious voices highlight that a rate reduction may already be priced in. Crypto strategist Ted suggested that Bitcoin might first drop to the $104,000–$92,000 range before staging a recovery, warning traders not to underestimate potential volatility even in a bullish macro environment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 53, reflecting a neutral stance among investors. This balance underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory in advance of Wednesday’s anticipated monetary decision.
Q4 Historically Strong For Bitcoin
Looking ahead, October marks the beginning of the fourth quarter, which has traditionally been Bitcoin’s most profitable period, averaging returns above 80% since 2013. Bitfinex analysts added that while short-term sellers are putting pressure on the market, long-term holders remain resilient, with conviction staying firm even after the September dip to $107,400.
This ongoing accumulation trend, combined with the potential macroeconomic boost from easing monetary policy, could set the stage for renewed upside momentum as 2025 enters its final stretch and global adoption accelerates steadily.
