TL;DR
- Holder trend: Long-term ADA wallets have accumulated since 2021, with coins aging four years or more and minimal profit taking, while July’s reclaim of $0.80 gives support as price consolidates below the December 2021 peak near $1.21.
- Treasury watch: The community-governed treasury holds about 1.6B ADA, with governance funding upgrades and some advocating diversification into Bitcoin to anchor reserves, decisions that could tilt priorities from Web3 initiatives toward balance sheet resilience over time.
- Market structure: Derivatives show $631M open interest with 77% longs, a pressure zone around $0.81 to $0.82 that could trigger liquidations, while DeFi TVL is near $350M, and $37M stablecoin liquidity signals modest on-chain momentum relative to peers.
Cardano’s long-term investors are holding firm as ADA trades in a tight range, extending an accumulation streak that began in 2021. A rising share of coins sits in wallets aged four years or more, while profit-taking stays muted. After reclaiming the $0.80 area in July, ADA consolidates below its December 2021 peak near $1.21, with conviction buyers signaling patience as volatility compresses across crypto.
https://twitter.com/Alphractal/status/1955151319548956813
Long-term holders anchor the market
Analysts tracking cohort behavior say wallets holding since 2021 have added through volatility, building a base akin to XRP’s patient community. Whales remain present, yet ADA is broadly distributed, with the top 100 addresses controlling about 22.56% of the supply. That dispersion, paired with aging coin reserves, dampens sharp distribution.
It reframes the lull as consolidation, a setup that often precedes range expansion when liquidity returns. At the time of writing, Cardano’s ADA trades at $0.77, dropping more than 2%.
Treasury strategy draws attention
Cardano’s community-governed treasury holds roughly 1.6B ADA, and debate is intensifying over how those funds should support the next phase. Recent governance prioritized upgrading financing, while some voices floated diversifying into Bitcoin to anchor reserves. Such a pivot would shift focus from Web3 and gaming initiatives toward balance sheet resilience. For now, resources exist, timelines are gradual, and distribution choices will shape ADA’s risk profile.
Derivatives paint cautious positioning
Open interest sits near $631M with longs around 77%, a tilt that raises the odds of long liquidations if price slips. Analysts highlight a potential pressure zone in the $0.81 to $0.82 band, where cascading stops could trigger a flush. Activity on Hyperliquid appears concentrated among a handful of whales, with funding dynamics favoring shorts at times as leverage ebbs. In aggregate, derivatives flow looks subdued versus hotter altcoins, limiting the odds of a dramatic short squeeze.
Network activity and price outlook
Despite a top-15 market cap and a loyal base, Cardano lags on-chain peers on several throughput proxies. DeFi value locked hovers near $350M, with about $37M of stablecoin liquidity, pointing to modest fee generation and limited reflexivity. Even so, the accumulation trend since 2021 and a renewed uptick from spring 2025 suggest structural support beneath the spot.
