TL;DR
- Ethereum tops $4,300: ETH briefly reclaimed $4,300 as traders leaned into rate cut hopes after Vice Chair Bowman’s comments, setting up CPI as the week’s key catalyst while resilience persisted despite shaky sentiment.
- ETF flows wobble, then stabilize: BlackRock recorded single-session outflows of $292.21 million from IBIT and $375 million from ETHA, snapping a 21-day inflow streak before normalizing by midweek as buyers reassessed positioning.
- Macro and catalysts to watch: July CPI on Tuesday, PPI and retail sales later in the week, and an 88.4% implied chance of a September cut keep policy in the driver’s seat as crypto braces for elevated volatility.
Ethereum briefly punched above $4,300 to start the week, shrugging off a bout of ETF outflows as traders latched onto fresh signals of interest rate relief. A crucial U.S. inflation report is about to guide the next decision. The move capped a week in which ETH outperformed majors, even as politics and policy jockeyed for influence over rates and liquidity.
Rate-cut tailwinds
Weekend remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman that three cuts are necessary helped ignite the upside, reinforcing a market already swinging on every data point. Equity traders also cheered the nomination of Stephen Miran to a vacant Fed governorship, reading it as another nudge toward easier policy. Crypto has mirrored that sensitivity, with risk appetite rising and falling as the odds of multiple 2025 cuts shift.
ETF whiplash
Against that macro swirl, BlackRock logged a sharp, two-pronged pullback in its flagship spot funds last week, yanking $292.21 million from IBIT and $375 million from ETHA in a single session. The outflows snapped Ethereum ETFs’ 21-day net inflow streak and rattled sentiment before stabilizing two days later.
Price-wise, ETH’s rebound outpaced Bitcoin as dip buyers stepped back in. At the time of writing, ETH trades at around $4,200, dropping less than 1%.
Who is buying, and why it matters
Strategic purchases by U.S.-listed companies helped underpin the bounce, with Bitmain now holding more than 830,000 ETH on its balance sheet. Wall Street’s Tom Lee called buying Ethereum the most important trade of the next decade, while Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick argued that equities of ETH-accumulating firms could outperform spot ETFs. That chorus, plus the policy backdrop, framed a narrative of resilience despite fickle flows.
CPI in focus
Tuesday’s July CPI print sits at the center of the week, with PPI, retail sales, and Fed speak close behind. At publication time, futures implied an 88.4% chance of a quarter-point cut at the September meeting, a probability that could drift once cash markets fully digest the weekend commentary. If inflation goes too high, crypto might take another hit; if it decreases, the easiest route points to higher values. Volatility remains the base case.
