TL;DR
- A total of 35,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on March 14, creating uncertainty in the markets. Additionally, an even larger $11 billion expiry is expected on March 28.
- With a put/call ratio of 0.73, there are more long (call) positions than short (put) ones, suggesting underlying optimism, though bearish bets below $70,000 persist.
- Despite recent volatility and occasional dips, fundamentals remain strong. Lower inflation in the U.S. and institutional demand could boost Bitcoin in the medium term.
This Friday, March 14, the cryptocurrency market faces another key event: the expiration of 35,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $2.9 billion. This happens in a context of lower trading volume and mixed investor sentiment. However, the real highlight is not just this week’s expiration but the massive $11 billion expiry looming on March 28, which could bring even greater volatility.
The immediate impact on Bitcoin’s price will depend on traders’ reactions. With a put/call ratio of 0.73, most contracts reflect long positions, suggesting that investors still see upside potential. However, bearish positions remain, with some betting on a drop toward $70,000.
Another key factor influencing price action is the growing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin derivatives. Companies and hedge funds continue to explore crypto options as a hedging strategy, which can contribute to increased liquidity and stability over time.
The Real Game: Futures, Options, and Institutional Players
The options market has become a key player in Bitcoin’s price direction. Data from Deribit shows that open interest (OI) is concentrated at $120,000, with around $1.4 billion in active contracts. This suggests traders expect a bullish move in the coming months. Similarly, there is strong interest around the $100,000 level, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin still has room to grow.
Meanwhile, 220,000 Ethereum options contracts worth $416 million are also expiring today, with a put/call ratio of 0.68. This brings the total crypto options expiry value to approximately $3.3 billion.
Bitcoin and the Crypto Market: Correction or Consolidation?
The broader crypto market remains volatile. Bitcoin has dropped to $80,000 before recovering slightly to stabilize around $82,000. Despite bearish pressure, the macroeconomic narrative still favors Bitcoin: lower inflation in the U.S., increasing institutional demand, and growing adoption. Some analysts believe that while short-term corrections may occur, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Meanwhile, Ethereum remains sluggish, hovering around $1,830, while altcoins like Cardano (ADA), Pi Network (PI), and Hedera (HBAR) show losses. However, XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), and Tron (TRX) have managed to stay in the green.
