TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes claims that Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle and predicts its price could drop to $70,000 before potentially surging to $250,000.
- The former BitMEX CEO advises investors to buy cautiously during pullbacks near $80,000 and avoid leverage.
- Arthur expresses doubts about the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve under the Trump administration due to time constraints and other priorities.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has expressed his firm belief that the Bitcoin market remains in a bullish phase. Despite the corrections the cryptocurrency has experienced, he considers the bull cycle to still be ongoing and predicts that, in the worst-case scenario, BTC’s price could drop to $70,000, the previous cycle’s all-time high.
In his latest post, Hayes mentioned that while he cannot guarantee Bitcoin will fall to that level, he sees any correction near $80,000 as a buying opportunity. He argues that although some analysts may view the recent price surge as a mere “dead cat bounce,” it could actually lead to a new long-term growth phase. Additionally, he suggested that investors should act cautiously, avoid leverage, and buy strategically during pullbacks while waiting for the final wave of volatility in traditional markets.
Why Does Arthur Hayes Believe Bitcoin Is Still in a Bull Phase?
Hayes’ analysis is based on the idea that the crypto market remains in a bull phase, which began after the bear market bottom in November 2022. Despite the drop observed at the end of February, Bitcoin has increased in value by over 400% from its 2022 lows. Under this premise, other industry figures, such as Karel Mercx from Beleggers Belange, also believe the market is still in a bullish cycle, suggesting that recent pullbacks are false breakdowns and that the market is gearing up for an upward move in the coming weeks.
However, Hayes also warned about the impact that a correction in traditional markets could have on Bitcoin. If indices like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 drop by 20% to 30%, Bitcoin could fall even further, possibly down to $70,000 or lower, before recovering again. In this scenario, Arthur believes BTC could enter a consolidation phase, remaining in a tight range until market conditions allow for a new breakout.
Doubts About the Bitcoin Reserve
On the other hand, Hayes expressed skepticism about the idea that Donald Trump’s administration could create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a plan that some in the crypto industry had anticipated with excitement. The former BitMEX CEO questioned Trump’s ability to implement this policy due to the limited time before the elections and the numerous priorities his administration faces
