TL;DR
- August’s $3B token unlocks drop 52% from July, but Sui’s $167.62M release (Aug 1) poses high volatility risk due to its low circulating supply (34.5%) and elevated valuation.
- Mid-month unlocks for Aptos ($51.5M), Avalanche ($40.35M), and Arbitrum ($39.24M) could compound sell pressure; low-float coins Starknet ($16M) and Kaito ($29M) face amplified volatility from thin liquidity.
- Polymath CEO Vincent Kadar notes fading “unlock anxiety”: institutions now prioritize governance, utility, and compliance over supply shocks, signaling market maturation.
August’s scheduled crypto token unlocks total $3 billion, a sharp 52% drop from July’s $6.3 billion, yet high-impact releases from Sui, Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Arbitrum (ARB) could trigger volatility, warns vesting tracker Tokenomist. Leading the surge, Sui unlocks $167.62 million on August 1, representing the month’s largest release.
With only 34.5% of its supply circulating, its high fully diluted valuation amplifies sell-off risks if early investors exit. Fasttoken reports $91.6 million on August 18, but little effect is anticipated since 94% of its coins are already in circulation.
SUI UNLOCK DOMINATES AUGUST’S SUPPLY SURGE
Sui’s $167.62 million release poses outsized market risk due to its “thin float” structure. Tokenomist flags this as an “elevated risk” event: the sudden supply influx could pressure prices if venture capital firms or early team members capitalize on gains. Historical patterns show coins with sub-40% circulating supply often see 5–10% corrections post-unlock.
Comparatively, Fasttoken’s $91.6 million unlock likely faces muted impact, as its near-full circulation reduces dilution fears.
MID-MONTH UNLOCKS TARGET APT, AVAX & ARBITRUM
From August 10–15, Aptos releases $51.5 million, Avalanche unlocks $40.35 million, and Arbitrum distributes $39.24 million. While smaller than Sui’s event, their concentrated timing could compound sell pressure across mid-cap altcoins. Low-float coins like Starknet ($16M unlock) and Kaito ($29M) face amplified volatility due to shallow order books.
Tokenomist data indicates Starknet’s daily volume averages just $32M, meaning its $16M unlock equals 50% of typical liquidity, risking exaggerated price swings.
LOW-FLOAT Coins FACE LIQUIDITY CRUNCH TEST
Projects with a restricted circulating supply are highly susceptible during unlock events. Kaito’s $29 million release, for example, dwarfs its average $7.4 million daily trading volume, creating fertile ground for slippage.
“These events stress-test market depth,” noted a Tokenomist analyst. “If unlock volumes exceed 30–40% of typical daily activity, algorithmic traders often preemptively short tokens, accelerating declines.” This dynamic recently triggered a 12% single-day drop for Aevo after a similar unlock.
Vincent Kadar, CEO of security token platform Polymath, observes a “constructive maturation” in investor psychology: “The panic-driven ‘unlock anxiety’ of 2024 is fading. Institutions now scrutinize governance frameworks, verified adoption metrics, and long-term incentive alignment, not just tokenomics cliffs.” He attributes August’s 52% unlock reduction to strategic supply planning amid tightening regulations, not bearishness.
