TLDR:
- SOL holder profitability drops to 15%, levels not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022.
- The “Liveliness” metric reveals that dormant wallets are distributing assets instead of accumulating.
- Technical support at $79 stands as the final barrier before a potential drop toward the $70 zone.
The bearish trend in the Solana ecosystem has extended for the third consecutive week. Currently, the market is closely watching as the asset flirts with a drop representing the Solana price below $80, a critical psychological level that is testing the conviction of even the most veteran investors.
On-chain data reveals a panorama that concerns investors. The supply of SOL in profit has plummeted to 15%, a level not observed since November 2022. This suggests that the vast majority of holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses.
While low profitability sometimes precedes a stabilization phase, the current sentiment remains markedly bearish. Lack of institutional demand and adverse macroeconomic conditions are limiting any attempts at an organic rebound in the short term.
Long-term investors show signs of exhaustion
The Liveliness metric recently registered a spike, indicating that coins that remained inactive for years are now moving toward exchanges. This behavior confirms that Long-Term Holders (LTH) have shifted from an accumulation phase to one of aggressive distribution.
This capitulation became evident in late January when the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for these investors fell below zero. Generally, when high-conviction investors sell at a loss, the asset’s macro momentum tends to weaken significantly.
So far, SOL is barely holding above the $79 technical support, a zone of vital importance for bulls. If the selling pressure from large holders persists, the cryptocurrency is highly likely to seek liquidity at the $70 Fibonacci extension level.
It is worth noting that a recovery remains possible if the price manages to break above the descending trendline and reclaim $88. However, until long-term investor confidence is restored, any rally could be interpreted as merely an exit opportunity.
