TL;DR:
- Michael Saylor hinted at a shift in capital strategy after the market net asset value (mNAV) fell below 1.0x.
- Strategy Inc.’s corporate guidance indicates that an MSTR stock buyback is prioritized under this threshold.
- MSTR shares are testing the $170 support, with analysts projecting an initial rebound target of $235.
Michael Saylor used his X account to hint at adding “green dots” to Strategy Inc.’s charts, refocusing market attention on the market net asset value (mNAV) zone below 1.0x, which is favorable for stock repurchases. Simultaneously, technical analysts are mapping a potential recovery path for MSTR shares from support near $170 toward an initial target of $235.
Saylor suggested a potential shift in Strategy’s capital playbook after the company’s mNAV fell below 1.0x this week. Saylor asked on X: “What if we start adding green dots?”, accompanying charts of the firm’s Bitcoin portfolio and its capital guidance.
Strategy’s corporate guidance clearly states that when the mNAV falls “Below 1.0x mNAV,” the company will “consider issuing credit to repurchase MSTR.” This threshold contrasts with higher mNAV bands, where Strategy plans to issue stock to acquire more Bitcoin. The firm’s Bitcoin portfolio chart, dated November 30, 2025, shows holdings of 649,870 BTC.
Minutes after the executive’s tweet, X user Crypto Kid noted that Strategy’s mNAV had dropped below 1.0x just two days earlier, suggesting that the move should point to an MSTR stock buyback rather than another Bitcoin purchase. It is now notable that Saylor used the “green dot” phrase not only concerning Bitcoin accumulation but also regarding potential stock repurchases when the company’s equity trades below its stated valuation.
Technical Analysis: MSTR Fights to Reclaim Key Levels
Strategy Inc.’s (MSTR) shares are testing initial recovery levels after a steep sell-off. Currently, the price is moving just above the $170 support, while working to break a resistance band between $177 and $190.
Han Akamatsu wrote on X that reclaiming $180 would mark “the first positive step” toward a new bullish trend. He noted that the 1-day Hull Moving Average (HMA) is currently capping the price in the $177 to $190 zone.
According to momentum indicators, there is still stress, but they hint at stabilization. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in oversold territory but has started to curl higher, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing.
In summary, if buyers defend the $170 floor and avoid a sharp rejection from the $190 area, Akamatsu sees an initial upside target around $235, a move that would be strongly propelled by the confirmation of the MSTR stock buyback.
