This Wednesday, prediction markets—including Polymarket—issued a pessimistic Bitcoin price forecast, asserting an 82% probability that the asset will fall below $65,000 this year. Marex analyst Ilan Solot highlights that this sentiment reflects the asset’s inability to act as a safe haven, following a 40% loss in value since reaching all-time highs of over $126,000 last October.
This bearish move centers on a crisis of confidence fueled by nearly $4 billion in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past three months. Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, notes that massive capital destruction caused by leverage has left many investors sidelined, while a lack of fresh institutional demand has left the majority of retail traders in a loss position.
As the end of February approaches, the psychological support at $70,000 will be under the market spotlight, as it is the level that 72% of bettors believe will be lost before March. Although firms like Standard Chartered maintain optimistic long-term projections, the “wisdom of the crowd” in prediction contracts suggests the road to recovery will be slow and dependent on ETF flows regaining their previous momentum.
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