TL;DR
- Growth Surge: Prediction markets exploded from under $100M in 2024 to $13B in 2025, led by non-sports categories.
- Accuracy Edge: Platforms like Polymarket achieve 90-95% correct forecasts, outperforming traditional models in volatility.
- U.S. Expansion: Polymarket reentered the U.S. with CFTC approval and $2B ICE backing, boosting mainstream adoption.
On-chain prediction markets have surged into the spotlight, with a new joint report from Keyrock and Dune Analytics revealing an extraordinary 130x increase in monthly volumes since early 2024. What began as a niche sector under $100 million has now ballooned past $13 billion, cementing prediction markets as one of the fastest-growing financial arenas. The findings highlight not only explosive growth but also remarkable accuracy and adoption across platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Explosive Growth Across Categories
The report shows that non-sports markets are driving 2025’s momentum, with Economics and Tech & Science leading the charge. Economics volumes rose 10 times while Tech & Science expanded 17 times. Open interest surged in Economics (7x) and Social & Culture (6x), underscoring how users are increasingly betting on macroeconomic and societal outcomes. Politics, Elections, and Economics now dominate activity, with Kalshi reporting these categories hold 2.5 times the open interest of Sports, while Polymarket saw Politics outpace Sports by 400%.
Record-Breaking Volumes
Data from Artemis further amplifies the story, showing spot volumes hitting $14.5 billion last month, up from $9.4 billion in October. Both Polymarket and Kalshi set new records, reflecting how prediction markets are becoming mainstream tools for real-time insights. Partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and Yahoo Finance are helping integrate these platforms into broader financial discourse, positioning them as alternatives to traditional forecasting models.
Accuracy and Reliability
The report emphasizes prediction markets’ remarkable accuracy, with Polymarket and Kalshi posting Brier scores around 0.09. Outcomes are priced correctly 90-95% of the time, with accuracy peaking at 94.1% in the final hours before resolution. Kalshi’s inflation market was found to be 4.3 times less volatile than the Cleveland FedNow model, reinforcing their credibility as forecasting tools. Liquidity continues to enhance reliability, making these platforms indispensable for analysts and traders.
U.S. Expansion and Institutional Backing
Polymarket’s return to the U.S. after CFTC approval marks a pivotal milestone. Its app launch allows Americans to place real-money bets on politics, sports, and more. This comeback follows a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange. Founder Shayne Coplan described prediction markets as “the most accurate thing we have right now,” highlighting their utility in generating actionable information.
