TL;DR
- Polymarket has experienced a historic surge in betting activity, reaching $500 million in contracts related to the U.S. elections.
- Bets in the U.S. presidential market have accumulated $319 million, while the contract for the Democratic nominee has received over $212 million.
- A contract on cat-themed memecoins, featuring the POPCAT token, has surpassed $1 billion in market capitalization.
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a boom in betting activity, driven by President Joe Biden’s surprising decision not to run for re-election. In a week marked by movements in the prediction market, the volume of bets has reached historical levels, with daily transactions exceeding $28 million, a dramatic increase from the $4-5 million in daily volume recorded a month ago.
The impact of Biden’s decision is clearly reflected in the betting figures. Bettors have invested over $500 million in various political contracts on the platform. In particular, the market for the winner of the U.S. presidential election has attracted $319 million in bets. Meanwhile, the market for the Democratic nominee has received over $212 million, with Kamala Harris being the clear favorite. Additionally, the contract related to the Democratic vice-presidential candidate has accumulated $10 million in bets.
The increase in activity has surpassed the previous record of $744 million bet on Betfair for the 2020 elections. However, with the election still several months away, Polymarket could approach the $1 billion threshold in bets.
Polymarket: Technology, Politics, and Betting
In parallel, a Polymarket contract on cat-themed memecoins has also garnered significant attention. The POPCAT token, based on Solana, has surpassed the $1 billion market capitalization threshold, despite controversies over potential market manipulation due to a massive purchase that boosted its value.
On the other hand, the prediction market has also been attentive to issues outside the electoral realm. A faulty update of CrowdStrike security software caused global failures in Windows computers, leading to chaos in transportation and business operations. Despite expectations for a quick fix, the severity of the problem proved to be much greater than anticipated.
Recent surprises in the prediction market reflect an era of high volatility and uncertainty, both in the political and technological spheres. We will have to wait for the Democratic Party’s decisions to see how the bets continue to develop.
