TL;DR
- Polymarket assigns a 69% probability to the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, reflecting sustained momentum in Washington.
- The White House intensifies negotiations and sets a March 1 deadline to move discussions forward.
- Industry leaders, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, estimate approval odds at 90% by April, reinforcing pro-crypto expectations.
Polymarket shows renewed confidence in the Clarity Act as the White House increases pressure on lawmakers to finalize a federal crypto framework. The prediction market currently prices a 69% chance of enactment in 2026, holding steady after recent volatility linked to negotiations on Capitol Hill.
Polymarket Signals Renewed Momentum For Clarity Act
Data from Polymarket indicates that market sentiment improved in recent days as talks in Washington accelerated. Odds moved higher earlier in the week before stabilizing at 69%, suggesting traders recognize progress while monitoring political risk.
The Clarity Act seeks to establish a clear division of authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The proposal defines when a digital asset qualifies as a commodity rather than a security, a distinction that has driven multiple enforcement disputes. Supporters argue that codifying this separation would reduce compliance uncertainty and encourage capital formation within the United States.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated there is a 90% probability of passage by April, citing bipartisan recognition that regulatory clarity strengthens domestic competitiveness. He noted that jurisdictions such as the European Union already operate under structured digital asset rules, placing pressure on U.S. lawmakers to act.
White House Intensifies Push Ahead Of March Deadline
The administration convened several meetings with banking representatives and crypto executives, holding a third session this week. Officials identified March 1 as a key deadline to advance negotiations and narrow differences surrounding stablecoin oversight.
Banking groups request additional analysis on how yield-bearing stablecoins may affect deposit bases, while crypto firms maintain that innovation should not be constrained without measurable systemic risk. Proponents of the legislation argue that a transparent statutory framework would replace regulation by enforcement and provide consistent standards for exchanges, issuers, and custodians.
If lawmakers reach agreement, the Clarity Act would create a defined regulatory structure for digital assets in the United States. For pro-crypto advocates, that outcome supports long-term investment, institutional participation, and sustained blockchain development within the country’s legal framework.
