TL;DR:
- The POL token shows a bullish divergence after recovering 13% from February lows.
- Unlike the last major surge, the market has not yet experienced a full seller flush.
- Whales have increased their holdings by 16%, quietly accumulating amid uncertainty.
This Friday, market attention focused on a potential massive Polygon rally that seems to be brewing on the charts. After days of bearish pressure, the POL token managed to stabilize near $0.095, sparking optimism among technical analysts.
The similarity between the current structure and the pattern from earlier this year, which sent the price soaring 90%, is striking. However, there is a critical psychological and technical factor at play: the lack of a definitive capitulation by sellers.
Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear bullish divergence, the price has tested the $0.087 support level multiple times. This means that, unlike the previous rally, the excess supply has not yet been fully absorbed by the market.
Derivatives Data and Whale Behavior
Derivatives data has introduced a twist to this narrative, with open interest remaining unusually low compared to other cycles. Negative funding rates indicate that traders are still positioning themselves in shorts, distrusting the strength of the upward move.
On the other hand, whales appear to have a different long-term vision. Since the beginning of February, whale wallets have grown to 8.75 billion POL, reflecting a significant increase in their strategic reserves.
This quiet accumulation acts as a cushion for the price, preventing it from falling further. However, by not forcing a massive exit of small sellers, the bullish movement currently lacks the explosiveness needed to break through resistance levels.
To confirm this momentum, Polygon must clearly overcome the $0.118 barrier, which would attract the necessary leverage. Otherwise, if the $0.083 support fails, the recovery scenario could be significantly delayed.
