TL;DR
- Nearly half of US states are now in or near a recession.
- The top 10% holds two-thirds of the nation’s total wealth.
- US household debt is rising, exceeding $18.5 trillion this year.
Nearly half of the United States enters recession according to data released by Kobeissi Letter supported by figures from Moody Analytics. Twenty-three states now stand in contraction or face a high risk of entering such territory. That group contributes roughly one-third of national economic output and reflects a deterioration that advanced from September, when the count included twenty-two jurisdictions and added Michigan as the most recent case.
Regions across the Midwest, Northeast, and Northwest face heavier pressure. States such as Washington, Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, Virginia, Connecticut, and Maine appear in red within the economic map cited by Kobeissi Letter. In contrast, Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia maintain moderate expansion. Large economies such as California and New York advance without earlier momentum, and economist Mark Zandi warned that both could pull the entire country toward a deeper recession if conditions worsen.
America’s reality:
Asset owners are living in the best economy of their lives.
Everyone else feels like we are in a recession.
There are 2 economies in the US:
Asset owners versus everyone else. pic.twitter.com/cfhhsltbAs
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 16, 2025
Moody Analytics recorded a sharp wealth concentration: the top 10% controls nearly two-thirds of national net worth, while the lower half holds less than 3%.
Wealthy Households Strengthen Portfolios as Lower-Income Families Depend on Credit
Households with investment portfolios, rising real-estate values, or business equity gain from financial markets moving upward. Families with modest earnings devote most spending to rent, insurance, utilities, and food, and face an environment where prices fail to decline and wages offer no relief. Ted Rossman from Bankrate described an economy with visible progress for higher earners and a more demanding setting for households tied to basic consumption.
US household debt reached $18.59 trillion during the year, with heavy reliance on loans for cars, education, housing, and essential expenses. Experian estimated $17.57 trillion in obligations during the third quarter of 2024, with a 2.4% annual increase and more than $105,000 owed per consumer. Millennials held the highest average balance at $371,864 due to mortgages, while Generation X led non-housing balances with $68,038.
Recession, Inequality, and the Dual Outlook for Crypto Assets
Nearly half of U.S. states are in recession, amid extreme wealth concentration—the top 10% holds two-thirds of national wealth—and record household debt exceeding $18.5 trillion. This complex macroeconomic backdrop creates mixed implications for crypto investors. In the short term, eroding purchasing power among middle- and lower-income households, rising unemployment claims, and widespread layoffs dampen demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates—due to persistent inflation—strengthens the dollar and reduces appeal for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, exerting downward price pressure. Yet this same environment fuels narratives of distrust in traditional finance, potentially driving interest in decentralized alternatives.
Investors with liquidity and a long-term horizon may capitalize on lower prices to accumulate positions, while practical crypto applications—like stablecoins for payments or DeFi protocols for savings—could gain traction in recession-hit regions.
Should the slowdown deepen and pull major economies like New York or California into sharper contraction, the Fed might be forced to pivot sooner than expected, injecting liquidity that would significantly benefit crypto markets. Thus, while near-term risks dominate, structural shifts and potential policy reversals could create favorable conditions for digital assets in the medium term.
