TL;DR
- Kalshi reached a record monthly volume of $4.39 billion in October, surpassing Polymarket.
- Kalshi’s growth is attributed to its focus on Web2 (non-crypto) users and integrations like Robinhood.
- Despite the boom, both markets face technical glitches and regulatory doubts over whether they constitute gambling.
The prediction markets landscape saw a notable shift in October, with Kalshi setting a new all-time record. The platform, Polymarket’s main competitor, reached a monthly trading volume of $4.39 billion.
This achievement comes amid a general expansion for the sector, which recently surpassed $1 billion in combined monthly volumes. Kalshi’s growth was largely driven by sports betting, allowing it to take the lead over its blockchain-based rival.
The success of the Kalshi prediction market lies in its strategy of attracting Web2 users. Unlike Polymarket, which requires the use of digital wallets and holding cryptocurrencies, Kalshi operates without a blockchain and offers a much lower barrier to entry.
Direct integration with mass-market platforms like Robinhood has been key to accelerating its mainstream adoption, attracting an audience that is not native to the crypto ecosystem.
The battle for dominance: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Although Kalshi dominated October, Polymarket also posted robust figures. The decentralized platform reached $2.29 billion in cumulative volume, marking its most successful month since October 2024, when it surpassed $2 billion for the first time.
Polymarket maintains a loyal base of crypto-native users, with over 76,000 active wallets, many attracted by the hope of an eventual airdrop. Google searches and activity around key events, such as the New York mayoral election (which generated $365M on Polymarket), show that the on-chain platform remains a relevant competitor.
Despite the explosive growth, both industry leaders face significant challenges. Both the Kalshi prediction markets and Polymarket experienced technical outages and glitches, including a shared miscalculation of the Dutch election results.
However, the biggest future obstacle is regulatory uncertainty. Authorities are still debating whether these platforms constitute illegal gambling, which could drastically limit their growth. As competition increases and cryptocurrency trading slows down, prediction markets are positioning themselves as a key alternative, but their long-term viability will depend on regulatory clarity.
