TLDR
- Hedera will increase the ConsensusSubmitMessage transaction fee from $0.0001 to $0.0008 starting in January 2026.
- Technical indicators such as the CMF and liquidation maps show a predominance of bearish positions in the market.
- The asset needs to break through the $0.115 resistance level to invalidate the current trend of stagnation.
The Hedera network is about to undergo significant structural changes that are drawing the attention of investors and developers alike. It was announced that, starting in January, an 800% increase will be applied to the fees of its consensus service.
While the conceptual jump seems alarming, in reality, the cost will move from $0.0001 to $0.0008, a figure that remains extremely competitive for enterprise use cases. Nonetheless, the primary question in the markets is how this decision will affect the HBAR price in 2026, considering that current investor sentiment is predominantly cautious.
Technically, the cryptocurrency is struggling to regain ground after sessions of high volatility. Currently, the asset is trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, located near $0.115—a barrier that acts as a psychological and technical ceiling that is difficult to cross.
Capital Flow Analysis and Market Projections
The outlook becomes more complex when looking at money flow indicators. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains below the zero line, evidencing a constant outflow of capital. This suggests that, far from accumulating, large holders are reducing their exposure, which could weigh down the HBAR price in 2026 if there is no shift in global risk appetite.
Derivatives market data reinforces this bearish thesis. Currently, short positions (sells) amount to approximately $8.21 million, significantly outstripping the $4.5 million in long positions (buys). This asymmetry indicates that traders have more confidence in a drop toward the $0.109 support than in a recovery rally.
In summary, for the sky to clear, Hedera must transform the $0.115 level into solid support. Only under a favorable macroeconomic scenario and growing enterprise adoption in the face of the new fee structure could the asset aim for the $0.120 zone, finally consolidating a sustainable long-term bullish trend.
