Puell Multiple

Proposed by analyst David Puell, the metric looks at the supply side of the market. Miners must sell part of their newly mined coins to pay for electricity and hardware, so their revenue influences selling pressure. Dividing today's dollar value of new issuance by its one-year average shows whether miner income is far above or below normal.

Historically, very high readings, above about 4, coincided with cycle tops, when miners were earning far more than usual and had strong incentives to sell. Readings below about 0.5 appeared near bottoms, when revenue was squeezed and weaker miners were capitulating. On-chain analytics dashboards display it with colour bands marking those zones.

Each halving cuts issuance in half, which mechanically pushes the multiple down for a year, and the growing role of transaction fees is not captured by versions that only count new coins. Like other cycle indicators, it relies on a handful of past cycles, and the arrival of ETFs and institutional buyers may have changed how much miner selling matters.