Four-year cycle

Bitcoin's block subsidy halves about every four years, cutting the flow of new coins that miners sell. After the halvings of 2012, 2016 and 2020, the price reached a major peak roughly 12 to 18 months later, then fell 75% or more in a bear market before recovering ahead of the next halving. That repeating pattern became one of the most cited frameworks in crypto.

Traders use the cycle to time accumulation and selling, and many altcoin seasons have followed the same rhythm. Supporters argue that reduced supply meets steady or growing demand, and that the pattern is reinforced because so many market participants expect it.

Sceptics point out that three or four cycles are a tiny sample and that other forces, such as global liquidity, interest rates and leverage, coincided with past peaks. Each halving also cuts a shrinking share of total supply. The arrival of spot ETFs in 2024, when bitcoin set a record before the halving for the first time, and corporate treasury buying led many analysts to argue the classic cycle has weakened or ended.