TLDR
- Ethereum breaks out of a symmetrical triangle to the upside, projecting a technical target near $3,700.
- ETH reserves on exchanges have fallen below 16.5 million, reducing immediate selling pressure.
- The Coinbase Premium Index shows weak institutional demand in the United States, which could stall the rally.
Ethereum closed 2025 nearly touching $3,000, but it has started the new year with renewed strength. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price in 2026 managed to break through the $3,200 barrier, showing breakout signals that have captured traders’ attention.
In this context, technical analysis reveals a “squeeze” in the Bollinger Bands on the three-day chart—a formation that generally precedes major volatility moves, similar to the rallies that previously pushed the asset toward its all-time highs.
Analyst Ali Martinez noted that ETH has exited a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. If the asset manages to stay above the support zone between $3,100 and $3,300, the technical target based on the height of this formation places the Ethereum price in 2026 around $3,700. However, if the price falls below these levels, the bullish scenario would be invalidated, shifting base support toward $2,800.
The Duality Between Deflationary Supply and Institutional Demand
Despite the optimistic charts, data from CryptoQuant reveals an important duality. On one hand, ETH reserves on exchanges have reached historical lows, sitting below 16.5 million units.
This supply scarcity is a fundamentally bullish factor for the Ethereum price in 2026, as any increase in buying activity can trigger aggressive upward price movements.
However, the “Coinbase Premium Gap” has fallen to its lowest point since early 2025, moving into negative territory. This indicator, which measures the price difference between Coinbase and Binance, suggests that interest from U.S. institutions is waning.
Without the backing of U.S. institutional capital, Ethereum might face difficulties consolidating above key resistance levels.
Despite this scenario, experts like Merlijn The Trader remind investors that ETH typically sees outstanding performance during the first and second quarters, keeping long-term projections of $10,000 alive for this cycle.
