TLDR
- Benjamin Cowen suggests that a Bitcoin bear market would stall ETH’s growth.
- Fundstrat projects a possible Ethereum correction toward the $1,800 – $2,000 range.
- The all-time high of $4,946 reached in August 2025 now acts as critical resistance.
The year 2025 was marked by major achievements, but now the Ethereum price is heading into a new year overshadowed by uncertainty. While the asset indeed hit a record of $4,946 in August, industry strategists warn that repeating this feat in 2026 will be a complex task, heavily conditioned by Bitcoin’s behavior and global liquidity.
In this regard, Benjamin Cowen stated that if Bitcoin confirms its entry into a bear market, it would be much harder for Ethereum to maintain an upward trend. Cowen added that attempts to surpass current highs could be a “bull trap”: a fleeting rally that lures in retail investors before a deep correction that could return the asset to the $2,000 level.
Divergence Between the Short and Long Term
This cautious stance coincides with projections from Fundstrat Capital. The firm, led by Tom Lee, predicts a “meaningful drawdown” for the first half of 2026, estimating that the Ethereum price could retreat to the $1,800 – $2,000 zone.
At the time of writing, ETH is trading near $2,963, meaning that reclaiming its all-time high would require a rally of over 40%—a move that seems unlikely under current macroeconomic pressures.
However, not all forecasts are negative. While Cowen believes most altcoins have exhausted their potential in this cycle, he considers Ethereum the sole exception with the possibility of surprising in the long term. For his part, Tom Lee maintains a constructive view, suggesting that the Ethereum price may have found a psychological floor after falling below $3,000.
Lee emphasizes that the network’s role as a pillar of digital finance and its adoption by Wall Street ensure a bright future within a 10-to-15-year window. Nevertheless, for short-term traders, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of consolidation and defense, where Bitcoin’s volatility will continue to dictate the pace of the ecosystem.
