TL;DR:
- Over 40% of Ethereum supply is underwater; supply in profit fell from 75% to 59% as ETH traded $2,973.78.
- Whales diverged: Erik Voorhees moved 1,635 ETH ($4.81M) to THORChain for BCH; Arthur Hayes sent ETH to exchanges, rotating into “high-quality DeFi names.”
- Winslow Strong transferred 1,900 ETH and 307 cbBTC to Coinbase; 0x46DB bought, but rising reserves, leverage, ETF outflows, and Coinbase premium -0.08 signal ongoing risk.
Ethereum’s December tape is forcing a profitability reset. More than 40% of ETH supply is now held at a loss, after three straight red monthly closes and a 22.2% drop in November. ETH briefly reclaimed the $3,000 threshold but failed to hold it, trading at $2,973.78, up 1.10% over 24 hours. Holder health deteriorated quickly: the share of circulating ETH in profit slid from over 75% earlier this month to 59% now. For desks, the key is whether losses trigger distribution or bargain hunting. That split will define liquidity, volatility, and the narrative in 2026.
https://twitter.com/ai_9684xtpa/status/2004372586214625658
Whale Positions Diverge
Whales are reacting in opposing directions. Lookonchain reported Erik Voorhees deposited 1,635 ETH worth about $4.81 million into THORChain to swap for Bitcoin Cash. The deposit followed a similar ETH-to-BCH swap earlier this month from a wallet inactive for nearly nine years, a clear signal of portfolio rotation. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes has been transferring ETH to exchanges, saying he is “rotating out of ETH and into high-quality DeFi names” as fiat liquidity conditions improve. The whale cohort is not aligned, and reallocation is replacing passive holding for now into the last week of December trading.
Another repositioning signal came from Winslow Strong, a partner at Cluster Capital, who transferred 1,900 ETH plus 307 cbBTC to Coinbase, totaling about $32.62 million. The move does not confirm selling, but centralized exchange deposits are commonly viewed as liquidity preparation during uncertain stretches. An on-chain analyst estimated the ETH was withdrawn one month ago at an average $3,402.25, while the cbBTC was accumulated between August and December 2025 at an average $97,936.68. If sold, the package implies about $3.907 million in losses, showing risk control is happening in public view ahead of year-end decisions.
Not all whales are exiting. Address 0x46DB has accumulated 41,767 ETH since Dec. 3 at an average $3,130 and is down over $8.3 million on paper. BitMine is still buying drawdowns despite an unrealized loss of about $3.5 billion, highlighting conviction in selected hands. Yet the risk dashboard remains heavy: exchange reserves are rising, Estimated Leverage Ratio is elevated, ETF outflows continue, and the Coinbase Premium Index has fallen to -0.08, its lowest in a month. That mix keeps direction contested. Until those signals ease, whales will keep disagreeing loudly.
