Polymarket traders put the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s chance of being signed into law in 2026 at 34%, with about $1.9 million in volume on the market. The pricing shows prediction-market confidence stuck well below even odds as the bill faces a narrowing legislative window.
The market’s weakness comes as Republicans push for a Senate vote while Democratic support remains uncertain over ethics concerns tied to President Trump’s reported crypto profits. The bill’s path depends on clearing the Senate and reaching the president’s desk, making Trump-linked conflict concerns a direct obstacle to bipartisan crypto legislation.
Polymarket’s rules say the market resolves “Yes” only if H.R.3633 passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law by December 31, 2026, otherwise it resolves “No.” The next checkpoint is whether Senate negotiations shift enough votes, because the odds now reflect legislative math more than crypto-market enthusiasm.
Source: Polymarket.
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