TLDR
- Mike McGlone (Bloomberg) identifies $100K as Bitcoin’s critical support to prevent a major collapse.
- McGlone warns of a high correlation (0.53) with the S&P 500, suggesting a risk of contagion to the stock market.
- On-chain data from Glassnode suggests it is a “mild bear phase” and not panic, as long as unrealized losses remain low.
Opinions are divided in the Bitcoin market as it undergoes a short-term correction. Following a recent 20% drop, experts are debating whether this is a healthy adjustment or the prelude to a deeper fall, with the $100,000 level at the center of the discussion.
The most severe warning comes from Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. On a recent podcast, McGlone stated that $100,000 represents a critical psychological and technical support level for Bitcoin. He warned that a break below this level could trigger a plunge down to $56,000.
McGlone was harsh in his criticism of the crypto market in general, stating that, with the exception of stablecoins tracking the value of the US Treasury, “there are no assets tracking anything substantial.” He predicts a “90% washout” before a “decent” market can be built.
The Risk of Contagion to the Stock Market
The Bloomberg strategist stressed that a Bitcoin collapse would likely not be limited to the crypto space. “If the market continues to trickle down below a hundred thousand, those are dominoes potentially falling because it’s very highly correlated to the stock market,” McGlone explained.
He noted that the recent correlation between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin’s price reached 0.5332, a high level. This is partly because a lot of money from ETFs comes from investors traditionally involved in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. In the worst-case scenario, McGlone sees a possible reversion to the 48-month moving average, now around $56,000.
On the other hand, on-chain data analysts offer a different perspective. A Glassnode report published on Wednesday suggests the current drop is a “mild bear phase” and not a “true crash” like those in the past.
Glassnode points out that the current unrealized loss (3.1%) is significantly low compared to past bear markets, more closely resembling mid-cycle corrections (seen in 2024 and 2025).
As long as unrealized losses remain below 5%, the market is experiencing an orderly revaluation, not panic. However, they warn: if that ratio exceeds 10%, it could mark the transition to a “more severe bearish regime” and validate the thesis of a broken critical Bitcoin support.
