TL;DR
- Gold crossed $5,000 this week as Hougan linked the rally to fiat distrust and demand for assets beyond government control.
- He said gold gained 65% in 2025 and 16% in 2026, with central banks doubling purchases after the 2022 Russia asset freeze.
- With Clarity Act odds sliding from 80% to about 50%, Hougan warned crypto may face a “show me” phase unless real-world use, stablecoins, and tokenized assets drive adoption.
Gold just cleared $5,000 per ounce and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan thinks the move is less about momentum and more about trust. The gold rally is flashing investor doubt in fiat and centralized control, setting a higher bar for crypto to prove utility. In a client note, Hougan paired the metal’s breakout with rising uncertainty around US crypto legislation, arguing the next few months could reprice both adoption and risk appetite. He notes half of gold’s dollar value formed in just 20 months. Gold gained 65% in 2025 and another 16% in 2026 so far.
Gold’s signal, crypto’s test
Hougan frames gold’s repricing as the compounded output of expansive monetary policy, rising debt, and currency debasement, but he flags something more strategic: investors want optionality outside gatekeepers. Sovereigns are signaling this shift by prioritizing reserves that cannot be frozen, haircut, or politically redirected. After the US froze Russia’s treasury assets in 2022, he says central banks doubled annual gold purchases. He also points to German economists urging repatriation of gold held at the New York Federal Reserve, and a Norwegian government panel warning of higher taxation, regulatory intervention, or confiscation risk under stress scenarios.
That institutional calculus, he argues, is spilling into digital assets, but only the parts that deliver ownership without permission. Crypto’s self-custody and censorship-resistant design is moving from niche jargon to a board-level requirement. Hougan highlights bitcoin as a way to hold value without relying on centralized intermediaries, and he notes that networks such as Ethereum and Solana run under rules no single authority can unilaterally change. The implication is a cost-benefit reset: if trust in traditional systems weakens, assets built for autonomy gain relevance even before the next speculative cycle arrives across portfolios and payments.
The near-term swing factor is Washington. Hougan flags uncertainty around the Clarity Act, a bill meant to cement a pro-crypto regulatory framework in the US. If the legislation stalls, he expects a multi-year “show me” phase where adoption must be earned through real-world usage, not anticipation. Prediction markets, he says, moved from 80% odds of passage earlier this year to closer to 50% after recent setbacks, including criticism from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Passage could spark a rally as investors reprice stablecoins and tokenized assets. Hougan remains optimistic, but cautions to plan for evidence-driven growth.
