TLDR
- “Long-Term Holders” (LTH) have shifted from massive selling to becoming net BTC accumulators.
- This shift removes a massive source of sell pressure, facilitating a potential price recovery.
- Historically, after a year closing in the red, Bitcoin averages returns of 124.5% the following year.
A seismic shift is occurring in the supply structure of the cryptocurrency market. Data highlighted by VanEck and Matthew Sigel indicate that the investors with the highest conviction have ended their most significant selling streak since 2019. After months of distribution, indicators signal that the phase of long-term Bitcoin accumulation has returned, meaning the profit-taking period for whales has come to an end.
This refers to a cyclic and strategic behavior: while retail investors often use euphoria as a signal to buy and sell out of fear, Long-Term Holders (LTH) do the opposite. They accumulate assets when sentiment is bearish and lock them away from exchanges, reducing available liquidity and setting the stage for the next rally.
The End of Sell Pressure and Projections for 2026
The disappearance of massive sell pressure is a vital catalyst. When holders stop flooding the market with inventory, any increase in institutional or retail demand translates into a price surge. Typically, a return to the neutral accumulation line following a red selling phase marks the beginning of a consolidation stage or the prelude to a substantial bullish trend.
Although Bitcoin has shown a “red” performance throughout the year, statistics are currently favoring the bulls. Historically, every time the asset closes a year with a red candle, the following year has been green, with an impressive average return of 124.5%.
Nonetheless, figures like Mike Novogratz warn that for this long-term Bitcoin accumulation to translate into full market euphoria, the price must first reclaim and consolidate above the psychological level of $100,000. Only then can a definitive trend reversal be confirmed, once again attracting massive speculative capital toward the king of cryptocurrencies.
