TL;DR:
- Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $211.5 million on August 4, 2026, while Ethereum ETFs added $53.8 million.
- A total of 155,000 BTC accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000, becoming the largest on-chain cost basis cluster at 0.7% of the circulating supply.
- Upside implied volatility in the options market fell to an all-time low of 23%, according to records from analytics firm Glassnode.
Last Tuesday, the Bitcoin price stalled near $64,000, showing a divergence from the record highs reached by Wall Street stock indices. According to analysis from Glassnode and Wintermute, this behavior reflects a market compressed into a phase of temporary stillness.
The digital asset market experienced conflicting capital flows between institutional vehicles and spot trading during early August 2026.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs captured $211.5 million in net inflows on Tuesday, August 4. Reports presented by Wintermute indicate that the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,737 points, while the Nasdaq rose 2.6% driven by tech sector earnings.
Despite these capital inflows, the pioneer crypto remained unresponsive to the momentum of the traditional stock market. Jasper De Maere, OTC desk trader at Wintermute, argued that the marginal buyer in the spot market does not reflect an outright, long-term buy stance.
A security incident recorded on July 31 led to the theft of 594 BTC from Coldcard devices, valued at approximately $38 million. Analytics firm Glassnode detailed that the event triggered the sudden movement of 119,000 BTC that had remained dormant for over a year.
Most of the transferred supply was redirected to new cold storage wallets rather than exchange platforms. Glassnode metrics suggest that only a tenth of the revived coins entered exchanges, while holdings in wallets less than a month old grew 40% during that period.
Analytics firm K33 examined the blockchain activity stemming from this massive transfer. Figures presented by Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, indicate that the seven-day active supply reached a 2026 high by moving nearly 890,000 BTC during the event.
On-chain metrics and derivatives market behavior
Measurements of participant entry prices reveal a significant level of accumulation near current trading levels.
Approximately 155,000 BTC have been acquired in the $62,000 to $65,000 range, representing nearly 0.7% of the total circulating supply. Bitfinex data suggests that investors continue to absorb available supply in that zone, even after recording two daily closes below $63,000.
At the close of the August 2, 2026 session, 54.6% of the Bitcoin supply was in profit territory. The Bitfinex research team estimated that the average investor is sitting at breakeven, a condition that historically tends to coincide with cycle bottom formations.
Institutional demand showed moderate contractions in the period leading up to the current stagnation. According to Glassnode metrics, U.S. exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of 65,800 BTC during June 2026, marking their lowest recorded monthly period.
In derivatives markets, contract trading has reduced the cost of hedging against sharp price movements. Call option implied volatility fell to 23%, which Glassnode reports as the lowest reading in the indicator’s historical record.
Wintermute projected a 1.01% move for the one-day straddle strategy heading into the Wednesday, August 5 expiration. This estimate frames the cryptocurrency’s expected operating range between $63,454 and $64,749 for the session.
Macroeconomic conditions and real yields are shaping up to be key factors in determining the next market trend.
Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst at Capital.com, argued that easing geopolitical friction and lower expectations for rate hikes are supporting risk appetite. The next verifiable milestone for markets will focus on the release of the official U.S. labor market report scheduled for Friday, August 7, 2026, where economic forecasts anticipate the addition of 85,000 jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.
